Numbers Game Redux

The hundred-game mark is in the rearview mirror and the Crew is riding into town on an 8-game tear tonight.  Seemed as good a point as any to look back on my numerical assessment that came after the Boston Massacre, and see how the team is doing.  In case you feel like looking back, I am referring to this post from May 20.  On that day, here are some of the things I said:

You figure 90 victories will still win the division.

Well, things have changed.  I no longer expect 90 to be enough to win the NL Central.  The Cubs are not *as* hot as the Brewers right now, but they’re still in first place, and they weathered a tough stretch without Alfonso Soriano.  Will 90 be enough to get into the post-season?  Still likely.  The biggest shift since the early part of the season has been the Senior Circuit’s balance of power being located squarely in the middle: the top 3 teams in the NL are the Cubs, Brewers, and Cardinals.  Meanwhile, there’s a dogfight (albeit a few games behind) in the East, and a depressing state of affairs in the West.  There are still 60 games to go, but it looks like 2 teams from our division are going to be playing in October.

With their 118 remaining games, the Brewers would have to go 70-48 [to reach 90 wins].

That would be a .593 winning percentage.  Since that May 20 post, the Brewers are winning at a .672 clip (39-19), and, as noted in the Journal this morning, they’ve actually gotten themselves on pace for 94 victories.  I predict there is going to be another lull before the end of the year (probably in August, when 17 of 27 games are on the road), but if they can stabilize, at least split those road games, and come into September around 12-15 games over .500, they’ll be looking good.

What if they split the rest of the road games (which is what you kind of need to do, at a minimum, to be a winning ballclub)?

A 7-0 trip will make anybody’s road record start to shine.  And hey– a win is a win, not matter if you had to come from behind 3 out of 4 times in St. Louis.  Since May 20, the Brewers are 19-11 away from home, and they’ve pulled their road record up to 28-26 overall.  Quite impressive.

It’s shaping up to be a helluva season.  The city is nuts with Brewer fever, and since picking up CC the first week of July, they’ve sold out virtually every game at home.  The writing’s on the wall; it’s post-season or bust, and I think this team’s got tools to make it.

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