Category Archives: Sports

Numbers Game Redux

The hundred-game mark is in the rearview mirror and the Crew is riding into town on an 8-game tear tonight.  Seemed as good a point as any to look back on my numerical assessment that came after the Boston Massacre, and see how the team is doing.  In case you feel like looking back, I am referring to this post from May 20.  On that day, here are some of the things I said:

You figure 90 victories will still win the division.

Well, things have changed.  I no longer expect 90 to be enough to win the NL Central.  The Cubs are not *as* hot as the Brewers right now, but they’re still in first place, and they weathered a tough stretch without Alfonso Soriano.  Will 90 be enough to get into the post-season?  Still likely.  The biggest shift since the early part of the season has been the Senior Circuit’s balance of power being located squarely in the middle: the top 3 teams in the NL are the Cubs, Brewers, and Cardinals.  Meanwhile, there’s a dogfight (albeit a few games behind) in the East, and a depressing state of affairs in the West.  There are still 60 games to go, but it looks like 2 teams from our division are going to be playing in October.

With their 118 remaining games, the Brewers would have to go 70-48 [to reach 90 wins].

That would be a .593 winning percentage.  Since that May 20 post, the Brewers are winning at a .672 clip (39-19), and, as noted in the Journal this morning, they’ve actually gotten themselves on pace for 94 victories.  I predict there is going to be another lull before the end of the year (probably in August, when 17 of 27 games are on the road), but if they can stabilize, at least split those road games, and come into September around 12-15 games over .500, they’ll be looking good.

What if they split the rest of the road games (which is what you kind of need to do, at a minimum, to be a winning ballclub)?

A 7-0 trip will make anybody’s road record start to shine.  And hey– a win is a win, not matter if you had to come from behind 3 out of 4 times in St. Louis.  Since May 20, the Brewers are 19-11 away from home, and they’ve pulled their road record up to 28-26 overall.  Quite impressive.

It’s shaping up to be a helluva season.  The city is nuts with Brewer fever, and since picking up CC the first week of July, they’ve sold out virtually every game at home.  The writing’s on the wall; it’s post-season or bust, and I think this team’s got tools to make it.

(Probably) The Last Word You'll Read About Brett On This Blog

I can’t take the credit for digging up the column from coldhardfootballfacts.com (that goes to the folks over at the Journal-Sentinel) but it is a helluva read for anyone in Wisconsin (or South Dakota) that might still be emotionally torn about the Favre situation.

They lay it all out in, well… cold, hard, fashion.  It seems to be an aptly named site.  16 years of Brett-filled glory, 1 Super Bowl title, and 2 total appearances in the big game.  They also bring up seasons like 1999, 2005, and 2006.  That hurts.

Anyway, I am far too immersed in the ongoing baseball season to even have football on my radar.  Good luck with the quarterback shat, Green Bay.  Catch you after the bye week.

Quick Notes Slash Recap

Hi.

Successful weekend for the most part, but I still have more to get done this evening…

  • Brewers took until today to win a game, but at least they avoided the sweep.  What the hell is with the Cubs?  How long do you think they’re going to wait to start losing?  All-Star break?  Maybe.
  • Here is my new address, effective June 28: 4121 N Ardmore Ave, Apt 9, Radio City, WI, 53211.
  • Grandma’s floor is back, it’s dry, and it only took about 4 hours to finish up.
  • Since Marty and Lise are going to start showing my place tomorrow, I have to go now and get some stuff picked up around here.

Numbers Game

Well, here’s the facts, Jack– the baseball season is one quarter of the way done. The Crew is in last place, 7.5 games behind the Cubs. If they’re going to live up to ANYONE’S expectations for this year, including their own, they’ve got their work cut out for them. One of the positive ways to spin their current plight is to note that Chicago was, at one point, 8.5 games behind the Brewers last year and won the division. The bad side of that point is that it would take a meltdown, of, well, Milwaukeean proportions for this thing to come together…

You figure 90 victories will still win the division. Nobody’s running away at this point to make that speculation any different. With their 118 remaining games, the Brewers would have to go 70-48. No small task. Another positive to take away is that out of these first 44 games, they’ve played 25 on the road. That means 63 more home dates versus 55 more on the road, and 7 of those are coming up in the course of this week. Once they get back, they’ll have quite a bit of the home-cookin’ from here on out. But we’re still talking about maintaining an overall .600 winning percentage, and the Brewers are just 11-9 at home.

What if they split the rest of the road games (which is what you kind of need to do, at a minimum, to be a winning ballclub)? Let’s say they go 27-28 the rest of the year on the road. They’d have to be 43-20 at home, a .680 winning percentage. Phew.

Baseball involves a LOT of numbers, and you’ll find no shortage of ways to dissect everything about the sport out on the ‘tubes, the TV, or in the paper. In the end, this is just another way of saying, “It ain’t early. It’s starting to be desperate.”

Quite a Finish

Dave and I were at the baseball game last night.  Glad we stayed until the bittersweet end— you may have seen the highlights of Rickie Weeks doubling in a pair of runs to snatch a victory from the division-leading Cardinals.  Even though the pitching hung in there and Manny Parra settled in to a decent outing once the dust settled on his first two rocky innings, it was still a struggle to be able to watch these guys methodically eek out hits throughout the game.  We watched the same players just light people up last year, so that makes it a little frustrating.  I turned to Dave in the top of the 8th and said, “You know it’s gotten bad when we’re down just 1 run and you don’t feel like there’s a chance of pulling it out.”

Well, I spoke too soon.  Sheets takes to the hill in about 20 minutes, and we’ve got a chance to get back to .500 (uughh), and within 3 games of first place.  Who thought that this division was going to be such a dogfight?  Answer: nobody.  I forget where I was reading earlier this week that pitchers are approaching our young guns (Fielder, Braun, et al.) a little differently this season, now that they’ve had a whole year to adjust.  Once again, for the 3rd year in a row, the Brewers find themselves at a sort of crossroads: in ’06, it was “can we finish with a winning record after a 81-81 ’05?”, then in ’07, it was “now that everyone has ‘arrived,’ will we deliver on all the potential?”, and here in ’08, it’s “can we continue to persevere after our chance of sneaking up on people has ended?”

We’ll find out.  Go Crew!

ESPN is saying John Hammond as new Bucks GM

Took a little break for lunch, and lookie what we have here.  Hammond is the #1 assistant to GM Joe Dumars in Detroit.  I think this will be a good hire, if it goes through.  That’s only half the battle, though, as Milwaukee also needs a coach that actually knows how to (A) get through to players and (B) win in the NBA.

Don’t hold your breath, but this is definitely the most exciting day for the Bucks since Game 7 of Conference Finals in 2001.

Home Opener Recap

It was a nice opening day overall.  Aside from the fact that we beat their ass, it was a good pre- and post-game outing.  If you didn’t have a chance to keep up throughout Friday, the pictures that I sent to Flickr periodically are, of course, still there.

Was there ever a mob of people, though!  I didn’t check– was it a bigger crowd than last year?  I assume so, just due to the media talking about it being the 3rd largest crowd ever at Miller Park, etc.  That was the one thing I could do without, and I might even think about handling the opener a little differently next year– there are SOOOOO many people at that park on the first day, and ones that won’t show up to another baseball game all year.  They’re there for the party only, and sure, that’s totally fine, but for someone like me who goes because I enjoy the game first and foremost, it gets a little bit nuts.

I stood in line to pee during the pre-game tailgate for something like 20 minutes.  There were plenty of folks there that weren’t willing to wait that long (they just peed next to their cars).  I think my last Flickr shot sort of says it all about the condition of the parking lot afterwards– it was like being in a paved garbage dump.  I really felt sorry for the folks that had to come in there and clean that place up in time for an afternoon game today.

So, I dunno, y’know?  Like I said, I understand that the home opener is always going to be a big party, but maybe for me, who is going to go to 15 or 20 games during the year regardless, what’s the diff if I’m at the first one?  I’ll probably change my mind by this time next year, but this is certainly the first time I’ve ever considered it.

Milwaukee Opener..!

Headed out the door shortly to get started on the opening day festivities– Schrubbe came down last night, and we’re going to run to the grocery store before braving the traffic mess.

Looking forward to a good game.  The Brewers are a lot better than San Fran on paper, so I think the day should end happily for the hometown crowd.  I’ll try to send up some photos throughout the day onto the Flickrs, so keep an eye out if you’re bored at work.
I would be able to blog from my seat if the fracking “post-via-email” thing would work right.  I might dick with that a little bit over the weekend.

Catch you after the game!